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Sports Betting Strategy

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Nothing is more fundamental to success in this field, as the only way to make consistent profits is to consistently find value in the betting markets.

Of course, this is easier said than done. Finding value on a regular basis is anything but easy. It actually requires you to be better than the bookmakers at assessing the probability of potential outcomes of sports events.

Bookmakers are professors that are not only very good at what they do, they also have the inherent advantage of being able to set the odds and build their commissions into those odds.

Our sports betting guide features two other articles that can help you better understand value, so please consider reading them.

In our essentials section we have an article that explains all about the basics of handicapping the market, which is a skill that you need to learn if you want the best chance of finding value.

There are a couple of other articles that we recommend reading before moving on to the more specific strategy advice that we offer.

The first is a complete introduction to sports betting strategy. It broadly explains what strategy is in the context of sports betting, and details all the ways it can help you if applied properly.

The second article is all about research and analysis. This article explores what you need study, where you can find the relevant information, and how you should interpret that information.

An important part of sports betting strategy is knowing the best ways to use the basic bet types effectively.

In the following articles we explain exactly how to do this. The advice in these articles is very straightforward and easy to understand, so they are great for relatively inexperienced bettors who are looking for simple ways to improve their skills.

Those with more experience might like to take a look too, even if just to refresh their memory on a few things. Totals are very popular wagers in the US.

This article details some methods you can use for pricing up totals to find value, explains the importance of understanding key numbersand features some other useful tips too.

US bettors typically see moneylines as a secondary alternative for betting on football and basketball, after the point spread.

They are commonly used on hockey and baseball though, and several other sports too. Whatever name you know it by, you learn how to use it effectively in this article.

Parlays, also known as accumulators, should be used sparingly. Recreational bettors are often attracted to them purely because of the potential for high payouts, but many serious gamblers choose to avoid them entirely.

There are some effective ways to use them though, as we explain in this article. There are a few basic strategies that are easy to learn, and can be applied to a wide variety of different sports.

These are among the first strategies you should learn about. You may not choose to use all of them, or any of them for that matter, but each one of them can be very useful in certain sets of circumstances.

Sound too good to be true? Read this article to find out more. Hedging is about protecting existing wagers against potential losses by placing additional wagers on alternative outcomes.

There are several situations in which this the right thing to do. This strategy is often used in the wrong way, or for the wrong reasons, but it can be very powerful if used correctly.

This explains how and why. It happens in sports betting. The most important thing to remember when this happens is not to panic. If you do panic, the likelihood is that you will start chasing your losses to recoup your money.

This is dangerous. Instead, look at your methods of betting; reduce the amount you are betting until you get back to winning.

Chasing your loss is the biggest and most common mistake out there. Only try to get that money back when you have started back on a winning streak; you can then gradually increase your bets to get some back.

Follow your head not your heart when you make a bet. You need to evaluate the team or sports player and make an objective and honest assessment of their chances.

You need to remain selective with your bets. Be selective. True success only comes when you make those value bets.

This mean you need to get odds that really reflect the outcome of the game. In this particular scenario the ratio of risk to possible reward is in your favour, so Liverpool is a good bet in this instance.

The high value bets are often to be found if you go against these high profile teams and players. The bookmakers generally tend to adjust their odds based on the amount of bets they expect.

Because of this, the underdog will generally be given better odds than they actually deserve. Therefore sometimes it pays to put your money on a team where a good player is out injured.

Also, because many people overreact to these injuries, there are often good value bets to be found here. Nadal, no matter how good, will struggle with a slight wrist injury or bad knee.

Same can be said for a Formula 1 driver who went under surgery a few weeks before a race, he may be the best driver but will likely not take the same level of risks he would have taken if he had gone under surgery months before the race.

The zig zag theory works on two main concepts. First, home teams have a real advantage. Second, when a team is coming off a loss they generally play harder and have a statistically better chance of winning.

The zig zag theory works best when a team is at home AND coming off a loss. There are several betting systems out there that proclaim to have a secret recipe for foolproof winning.

Of course, if they really worked then everyone would be rich and casinos and sportsbooks would be bankrupt. Compared to the Martingale system which only requires your last bet to win, this system needs your overall winning percentage to out-number your losses.

If you lose a bet, add the number of units you bet to the end of the sequence. When you win, cross out the first and last numbers in the sequence.

Continue until all numbers in the sequence have been crossed out. The truth is, none of these systems can guarantee a win, even if they promise to do just that.

One of the most important things both savvy punters and oddsmakers utilize is data and trend analysis software.

These days there are several online options that offer these services for free or for a low fee. It takes a bit of work to learn to use them at first but once you learn how to use these tools they can be an absolute game-changer for your results.

Not only can you figure out how the most common trends are calculated and used, but you can also explore your own trend ideas and potentially find edges that have eluded the sportsbooks and other bettors.

You never know what you might find. Perhaps NHL road underdogs, after long homestands, who start their back up goalie in the first game of a back-to-back are much more likely to cover the puckline.

It may seem random, but with data analysis tools you can find real trends that can help guide your bets. For example, over the past 13 seasons the underdog has covered the spread It measures how teams perform against the point spread, not just against their opponents.

That is an incredible stat to ponder. It makes it seem that no matter what strategy you employ, your point spread bet is a coin toss.

That extra three percent represents a massive difference for your bottom line so look for those opportunities. One advanced strategy punters use at the start of a new NFL season is the Pythagorean wins strategy, which is a name you might remember from math class in school.

It takes into account the amount of points scored by a team and compares it to the number of points scored against them. Amazingly, from to the Super Bowl was won 11 out of 16 times by the team that had the highest Pythagorean wins stat, not just the most outright victories.

Instead of doing the math yourself, you can find the stats for all teams posted at the beginning of the season.

You can also find free calculators online that will do the math for you. This is just one example of a more advanced strategy used to wager on the NFL.

In basketball, one advanced strategy we really like is going against the grain and betting against the public. This works especially well with point totals and teams that put up big numbers at home.

The common bettor will remember how a team performs at home, how quick their pace of play is, how many points they give up to the opposition, and then simply bet the same way the next time that team plays at home.

This means you can often get a great price betting the underdog or the under on totals in these spots. This works especially well when both teams have had busy workloads or are on the tail end of a back-to-back.

Statistics have shown that when a total is higher 8. This is also a viable option when the underdog has lost their previous game and the public is swayed by a small sample size and the odds have increased.

For more on baseball betting strategy, check out our full guide on how to bet on the MLB. There are lots of reasons hockey is a great sport for more advanced betting strategies.

There are also lots of edges for gamblers willing to put in the work. One common example is that the betting public for hockey tends to put too much weight on home ice advantage.

This creates excellent value for those willing to bet on the road underdog. For more hockey betting tips and strategies, read our full guide on how to bet on the NHL.

The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to calculate how much to bet when the odds are in your favor. Obviously, in sports betting, it is going to be difficult to know the precise probability of success or failure of an event.

However, with research and solid deduction we can make some reasonable guesses and then apply the Kelly Criterion to see how much of our bankroll to bet.

Say, for example, that you think the chances of Rafael Nadal beating Roger Federer on Clay are , and the decimal odds available at your sportsbook are 1.

Some are great quality while others might steer you far wide of your target.

Is it a coincidence that the Las Vegas casinos offer free alcoholic drinks while you are gambling? Take a break, go for a walk, get your mind clear before you start making anymore sports betting picks.

This is maybe the most important sports betting strategy. You will always want to do your research before placing your bets.

Although going with your hunch when betting your favorite sport may work some of the time, in the long run it will not lead to you winning money betting on sports.

In order to profit from sports betting you will need to research, study, and do your homework for each pick you make. Look at stats, find trends, create sports betting systems, analyze past games — basically do everything you could possibly do to ensure you have value in your pick before you place your wager.

A very big step to becoming a winning sports bettor is to make sure you are shopping for the best lines. What this means is that you will have to have an account at a couple of different online sportsbooks and when you are ready to make a bet on a certain team or outcome you check the different sportsbooks and find which book is offering the best line for you this ties in with our advanced how to find max value article.

For example, if you are looking to bet on the New England Patriots on a 7 point spread, you would want to check a couple different sportsbooks to see if any of them are offering the Patriots at 6.

Over the course of a sport betting season you can win yourself a lot of money from shopping the lines that would otherwise would not be one.

Line shopping is definitely one of the best sports betting strategies used by winning sports bettors. For example, some bettors always feel the need to buy an NFL favorite of The sportsbooks are smart enough to charge more juice to do this, mathematically making it a bad strategy.

Check out the video I made below about buying points on NFL underdogs. Above are the four main basic strategies you will want to follow in order to become a winning sports bettor, but there are a couple of other tips you can use to help you win money.

For one, you can try following a sports handicapper who is using a proven sports betting system. Be careful of scammers out there though.

Ask yourself, do you have the time and mind-space to do so? These strategies, tips, and tactics will help you maximize your winnings, stay safe and secure, and above all, enjoy your sports betting.

There's a reason why it's called sports betting, and not sports gambling. That's because you can have an edge in your adventures in sports betting, unlike gambling, where you are always operating at a disadvantage, or playing with very little edge.

The thumb rule of making it big is - don't do what everybody else is doing. As a beginner, it's natural for you to align your interests with what the public opinion is.

However, note that your dream of making sports betting a major contributor to your financial independence plan is contingent on you identifying your style, original way of thinking, and above all, not following the herd.

This is the oldest and yet the most useful tip you will ever encounter. This helps you avoid catastrophic situations of losing a lot, or ending up chasing losses only to end in debt.

Here's a school lesson, back to haunt just kidding you. Luck will help you win every now and then, but not always. Remember, most sports bettors don't do any kind of research before they place their bets.

This means that every incremental effort you put in analysis and background research will put you ahead of hundreds if not thousands of fellow sports bettors.

Here's the minimum that you can do, to begin with:- Understand the strategic aspects of the sports you are following for sports betting.

Much like everything, sports betting is often overcomplicated. It's too tempting to explain all kinds of outcomes with all kinds of theories.

You'd do well to distance yourself from non-value adding analysis and theorization. Selection bias, model over fitting, and over optimization among others are cardinal sins of sports betting that can hurt your chances.

Instead, be confident of your strategy, and give it time to yield results. Of course, you'd need to keep monitoring outcomes and doing course corrections, without significantly altering your core strategy.

Sports Betting Strategy Video

Best Sports Betting Strategies (feat. Kurt Long)